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Is a Recession Here? Yes. Does that Mean a Housing Crash? No.
On Monday, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) announced that the U.S. economy is officially in a recession. This did not come as a surprise to many, as the Bureau defines a recession this way: “A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.” Everyone realizes that the pandemic shut down the country earlier this year, causing a “significant decline in economic activity.” Though not surprising, headlines announcing the country is in a…
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The Shocking News in the Unemployment Report
Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released their May Employment Situation Summary. Leading up to the release, most experts predicted the unemployment rate would jump up to approximately 20% from the 14.7% rate announced last month. The experts were shocked. The Wall Street Journal put it this way: “The May U.S. jobless rate fell to 13.3% and employers added 2.5 million jobs, blowing Wall Street expectations out of the water: Economists had forecast a loss of 8.3 million jobs and a 19.5% unemployment rate.” In addition, CNBC revealed: “The May gain was by far the biggest one-month jobs surge in U.S. history since at least 1939.” Here are some of the job gains by sector: Food…
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The Economic Impact of Buying a Home
We’re in a changing real estate market, and life, in general, is changing too – from how we grocery shop and meal prep to the ways we can interact with our friends and neighbors. Even practices for engaging with agents, lenders, and all of the players involved in a real estate transaction are changing to a virtual format. What isn’t changing, however, is one key thing that can drive the local economy: buying a home. We’re all being impacted in different ways by the effects of the coronavirus. If you’re in a position to buy a home today, know that you’re a major economic force in your neighborhood. And while…
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Housing Inventory Vanishing: What Is the Impact on You?
The real estate market is expected to do very well this year as mortgage rates remain at historic lows. One challenge to the housing industry is the lack of homes available for sale. Last week, move.com released a report showing that 2020 is beginning with the lowest available housing inventory in two years. The report explains: “Last month saw the largest year-over-year decline of housing inventory in almost three years with a dramatic 12 percent decline, pushing the number of homes for sale in the U.S. to the lowest level since January 2018.” The report also revealed that the decline in inventory stretches across all price points, as shown in the following graph:George Ratiu, Senior…
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A 365 Day Difference in Homeownership
Over the past year, mortgage rates have fallen more than a full percentage point. This is a great driver for homeownership, as today’s low rates provide consumers with some significant benefits. Here’s a look at three of them: Refinance: If you already own a home, you may want to decide if you’re going to refinance. It’s one way to lock in a lower monthly payment and save substantially over time, but it also means paying upfront closing costs too. You have to answer the question: Should I refinance my home? Move-up or Downsize: Another option is to consider moving into a new home, putting the equity you’ve likely gained in your current house toward a…
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3 Reasons This is NOT the 2008 Real Estate Market
No one knows for sure when the next recession will occur. What is known, however, is that the upcoming economic slowdown will not be caused by a housing market crash, as was the case in 2008. There are those who disagree and are comparing today’s real estate market to the market in 2005-2006, which preceded the crash. In many ways, however, the market is very different now. Here are three suppositions being put forward by some, and why they don’t hold up. SUPPOSITION #1 A critical warning sign last time was the surging gap between the growth in home prices and household income. Today, home values have also outpaced wage…
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Americans’ Powerful Belief in Homeownership as an Investment
The Federal Reserve Bank (The Fed) recently released their 2019 Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey. The survey reported that 65% of Americans believe homeownership is a good financial investment. Since 2014, the percentage has increased by over nine percent. The Fed’s survey also showed that when the results are broken down by age, education, income, or region of the country, more than 55% of Americans in each category see homeownership as a good investment. This coincides with a recent Gallup survey of Americans which revealed that real estate was their number one choice for the best long-term investment when compared to stocks, savings accounts or gold. Bottom Line Americans’ belief in residential real estate…
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A Lack of Inventory Continues to Impact the Housing Market
The housing crisis is finally in the rear-view mirror as the real estate market moves down the road to a complete recovery. Home values are up and distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) have fallen to their lowest point in years. The market will continue to strengthen in 2019. However, there is one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: a lack of housing inventory! Buyer demand naturally increases during the summer months, but supply has not kept up. Here are the thoughts of a few industry experts on the subject: Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at National Association of Realtors “Further increases in inventory are highly desirable to keep home prices in…
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Mainstream Concerns about an Economic Slowdown Revisited
Recently, we reported that many believe a recession could happen within the next two years. We explained that 70% of economists and market analysts surveyed last year believe that a recession will occur in 2019 or 2020 and that 42% of consumers currently looking to purchase a home also agree that a recession will occur this year or next. However, the U.S. economy has performed well in the first quarter of 2019 and that has caused some experts to change their thinking on an impending economic slowdown. Here are a few notable examples: Anthony Chan, Chief Economist at JPMorgan Chase “I feel really comfortable that the economy is slowing down this year, but…
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Sunday Market Watch
Today I see that the local markets are a bit slow. We had 8 homes listed, 6 price drops, and 12 homes went pending. Whenever you see listing numbers lower than the pending numbers, market power sits in the lap of the sellers. Low inventory, and the buying season picking up as the temperatures do mean, all things remaining equal, we can expect to see another summer of steadily increasing prices. Builders are attempting to keep up with the influx of new residents, but since we are coming out of winter, we are a few months away from many of those new homes being completed. Want to know more about…
